Ziqhuba Njani iiNkokeli ukujongana nokuphazamiseka? Yenza iimephu ezintsha

Umxholo

• Ubulumko boRenaissance kwimephu yeHlabathi eNtsha
• Lixesha lokuhlaziya iincoko zethu
• ICartography njengoKhuphiswano lokuSebenza

Umhlaba njalo Yenza ingqondo. Kodwa ayisoloko inengqiqo kuthi . Oko sikubonayo kuxhomekeke kwindlela esiyijonga ngayo. Ukumangaliswa, umxholo ongaguquguqukiyo kule mihla kwi-C-suite, luphawu lokuba nokuba yeyiphi na indlela ebesiyisebenzisa ukubona umhlaba awusasibonisi izinto njengoko zinjalo.

Kuxa umhlaba uyeka ukwenza ingqiqo kuthi apho sidinga imephu entsha yehlabathi, ingxelo entsha emele ngcono inyani. Kodwa ukuza nenye, kwaye uyenze ibambelele, akukho lula. Cinga ngoku: Ekuqaleni kwee-1500s, uCopernicus wasifundisa ukuba uMhlaba ujikeleza ilanga-hayi enye indlela. Siphile ngolu lwazi kangangeminyaka engama-500. Kutheni, ke ngoko, sisadibana kwiValentino Pier eBrooklyn ukuza kubukela "ukutshona kwelanga"?

Inyani — njengoko nawuphina umfanekiso womzuzu ofanayo usemajukujukwini uyakuyicacisa— “ngumhlaba.” Thina, hayi ilanga, sihamba esibhakabhakeni ukuguqula imini ibe bubusuku. Kodwa loo nyaniso ilula, inkulungwane yakudala ayikangeni kulwimi lwethu. Ayikangeni ekucingeni kwethu. Yonke into “yokuphuma kwelanga” kunye “nokutshona kwelanga” kufuneka ibe sisikhumbuzo esinamandla sokuba amabali ethu emihla ngemihla anokujija kwaye agqwethe amandla ethu okubona izinto njengoko zinjalo.

"Iimephu" zethu zehlabathi zikho ikakhulu kulwimi, okanye kumabali, esiwasebenzisayo ukuyila iikhonsepthi kunye nemiba. Amagama ziimephu zengqondo ekwabelwana ngazo esizisebenzisayo ukuhamba kwihlabathi. Iinkokeli zendele kwisicwangciso-qhinga seshishini esingaqhelekanga sinokungaqiniseki ngamandla eemephu zengqondo, okanye amabali, ukubumba ukuqonda kwethu kumashishini, iingxaki okanye izinto eziphambili. Kodwa khawucinge ngendlela ukuphindaphindwa kolwazi okushiye ngayo isakhono seenkokeli sokulithetha ilizwe kubo, zihlala zibanyanzela ukuba babe ngabathengi bamabali abanye abantu. Umzekelo, sinokuthetha "ngophazamiseko" kumzi mveliso wethu kuba leyo yingxelo edluliswayo-kodwa into esiyithethayo xa siyisebenzisa ihlala iyinto engekhoyo kuthi nakwabanye. Ke, nazo, zizenzo ezilandelayo.

Ukwenza imephu (okanye imephu- ukwenza kwakhona Ngumsebenzi obalulekileyo xa uqhuba umbutho ngexesha lotshintsho olukhawulezileyo. Ngamaxesha anjalo, iinkokeli kufuneka zibuze rhoqo kwaye zihlaziye amabali ahamba umbutho wawo. Ukuba abenzi njalo, iimephu ezazisoloko zikhokele umbutho endaweni yoko ziyibambe kwiimbono zehlabathi eziphelelwe lixesha. Bafihla kwaye bagqwetha, endaweni yokutyhila, iindlela ezingaphambili.

Ukuba, nangona kunjalo, iinkokeli ziyaligcina ibali lombutho kwaye zihlaziya iimephu zazo zengqondo, imibutho yabo iya kuba nakho ukuxhotyiswa ngcono ukuvela kunye nehlabathi eliguquka ngokukhawuleza elibajikelezileyo. Ukwenza imephu okunje kungqamanisa ukugweba kwabantu kunye nokuthanda kwabo ngokusondeleyo kunye nenyani yangaphandle ngeendlela ezivelisa imibuzo engcono kunye nokwenza izigqibo; iyanceda ukufumanisa ukungangqinelani okungcwatywe nzulu phakathi kombutho kunye nokusingqongileyo; inokuguqula ngamandla indlela yokuziphatha kwabasebenzi.

Ubulumko boRenaissance kwimephu yeHlabathi eNtsha

Ngamanye amaxesha otshintsho olukhawulezileyo, ukubanakho kokwenza iimephu ezintsha (Oko kukuthi, amabali amatsha) kwahlulahlula abo bahlengahlengise ngempumelelo -kwaye benza-iziganeko kwabo bakhubazekileyo sisantya sotshintsho. Thatha i-Renaissance, umzuzu ofanayo wenguqu eqhutywa "yi-globalization" (uhambo lokufumanisa) kunye ne "digitization" (umatshini wokushicilela kaGutenberg). Abantu babone njani ngoku - ingxelo yabo-baqhuba uhlengahlengiso lwabo kwaye babakhokelela kutshintsho. Makhe sijonge amabali amathathu ahlaziyiweyo ancedileyo ukuchaza ixesha lokufumanisa kunye notshintsho.

Ukusuka kwiiMephu eziFlethi ukuya kwiiMbumbulu. Abokuqala ukwakha ubukhosi baseAtlantic, iSpain nePortugal, batshintshile ukusuka ekumodeliseni umhlaba njengeplatifiki ukuyilingisa njengobungqongqo hayi kuba ngequbuliso bafumanisa ukuba umhlaba ujikelezile (iYurophu yayisazi oko kususela kwixesha leGrisi yakudala), kodwa ukuba ngcono jonga ngeso lengqondo imibuzo ebalulekileyo yeshishini. Iilwandle ezisempuma nasentshona eYurophu zazingqinekile ukuba zinokuhanjiswa inqanawa, kwaye ngo-1494 iSivumelwano saseTordesillas senza umgca omnye (nkqu ngoku eyiBrazil) ukwahlula imihlaba engaphaya kweYurophu phakathi kwala mazwe mabini. Yonke into eyayibekwe empuma yomgca yayiyiPortugal; imihlaba esentshona yayiyeyeSpain. Kodwa zeziphi iziqithi ezibaluleke kakhulu kwezoqoqosho iSpice Islands (namhlanje eyi-Indonesia, kwelinye icala lomhlaba)? Kwaye yeyiphi indlela, empuma okanye entshona, yayiyeyona ndlela imfutshane yokufika apho? Ukuwubona umhlaba njengendawo engqukuva kuye kwanceda ukucacisa-kunye nokuphendula-loo mibuzo yeqhinga.

Ukusuka kwi-Sacred to Art ephefumlelweyo. Ubugcisa bamaxesha aphakathi babucaba kwaye babungumgaqo. Eyona njongo yayo yayiyinkolo-ukubalisa ibali elingcwele. Ukukopela kumnye umntu kwakuyinto eqhelekileyo; Izinto ezintsha zazingenantlonelo. Ukuyilwa kwembono yomgama (ukubonisa ubunzulu kwitheyibhile ethe tyaba ngokuzoba izinto ezikude kakhulu ezincinci), kunye nolwazi olutsha kwi-anatomy nakwinzululwazi yendalo, bezingekho kubugcisa baseYurophu de uBrunelleschi, uMichelangelo, da Vinci, nabanye babaqinisekisa ngaphakathi Ibali: Umsebenzi wegcisa yayikukubamba iqhekeza lendalo kaThixo njengoko wayeyibona. La magcisa aduma ngemisebenzi ebonisa ngakumbi ubomi, umbono wokuqala kunye nemibono yehlabathi.

Ukusuka kubutofotofo kuye kwiMass Market. UJohannes Gutenberg, owasungula umatshini wokushicilela ngee-1450s, wabuphelisa ubomi bakhe. Ngoba? Kungenxa yokuba iincwadi zazizezobunewunewu — ziluncedo kwabambalwa, zazinabaninzi nangakumbi — yaye ezoqoqosho kumatshini wokushicilela kaGutenberg zazisengqiqweni kuphela xa kubhalwa izixa ezikhulu. UGutenberg wazabalaza efuna iincwadi ezazifuna kwenziwe ngobuninzi bazo. Kodwa ngokuhamba kwexesha, itekhnoloji entsha yokuprinta yanceda ukutshintsha izimvo zabantu malunga neencwadi kunye nenjongo abanokuyisebenzela. Ngama-1520s, xa uMartin Luther wayalela bonke abantu ukuba bafunde iBhayibhile njengendlela yokukhathalela imiphefumlo yabo, iincwadi zazisiba sisixhobo esitsha apho iingcamango zafikelela kubaphulaphuli abaninzi. Ngokwenene, ukususela ngoko iBhayibhile iye yashicilelwa izihlandlo ezingamawaka ezigidi ezintlanu ukusa kwezigidi ezithandathu ize ibalwe.

Lixesha lokuhlaziya iincoko zethu

Ukuze uhambisane nehlabathi eliguquka ngokukhawuleza, abantu baseYurophu ngexesha loKuvuselela bahlaziya ngokupheleleyo iimephu zabo zengqondo. Namhlanje, uninzi lwethu lufuna ukukhutshwa kwakhona. Nayi imizekelo emithathu yeengxelo / iimephu eziphelelwe lixesha ezisetyenziswa ngokubanzi namhlanje ezinokuthi zihlaziye ukukhawulezisa amandla emibutho yokuziqhelanisa nokwenza ubuchule.

Ukusuka kwiziseko zophuhliso ukuya kulwakhiwo. Yintoni iziseko zophuhliso? Ngokwenyani, lolu lwakhiwo lulele apha ngezantsi. Igama elithi "iziseko zophuhliso" ngesiNgesi lisusela emva phayaa ngoo-1880s, ukuya kutshintsho lwesibini lweshishini (oko kukuthi, ukufika kwemveliso yobuninzi). Indlela eli gama ekudala lisetyenziswa ngayo ibonakalisa ishishini elizinzileyo, elisisigxina, nelingaguquguqukiyo — into exhasa imisebenzi exakekileyo yentlalo neyoqoqosho eyenzeka kuyo. Leyo yayiyimbali echanekileyo, kanye. Umbono yayikukuba abakhi / abaqhubi / abavelisi bezinto ezincedayo (njengeigridi zombane) bohlulwe kubasebenzisi.

Kodwa loo nto ichasene nekamva elixelwayo namhlanje-ngabaphetheyo kumbane, amanzi, ezothutho kunye neminye imizi-yeemodeli zeshishini eziqhubeka zisebenza ngaphakathi naphakathi kwazo zonke iindlela zentengiselwano. Ngokwandayo, iziseko zophuhliso ziphinda zamkelwe njengeqonga, elithi-njengamaqonga kuqoqosho lwedijithali-lifiphaze ukwahlula phakathi kwabavelisi kunye nabasebenzisi, kwaye lenze ukuba kusetyenziswe okungalindelwanga ngokupheleleyo ngabakhi benethiwekhi. Ukuba onke la magosa anyuliweyo, abathengi, okanye abasebenzi bayazi ngeshishini elinikiweyo kukuba libandakanya "iziseko zophuhliso," ke abanalo ulwazi lokuba liqabane elifanelekileyo kolu tshintsho.

"Ulwakhiwo" lubamba ngokusondeleyo iimodeli ezivelayo kwezi mveliso. Iigridi zombane eziSmart zenza ukuba amashishini kunye nabantu benze, bathengise, kunye arbitrage umbane ngezixhobo zabo zokuvelisa kunye nokugcina eziqhotyoshelwe kwinethiwekhi. Abanini bamalungelo endlela, ukusuka kwizixhobo zamanzi ukuya kwiinkampani zikaloliwe, banokuvumela ukuhamba kwezithuthi ezizimeleyo kunye needroni kwiindlela zabucala zezothutho ezingangqubani nezithuthi zikawonke-wonke. Abanini bezinto ezibonakalayo kuzo zonke iintlobo, ukusuka kwiindawo zokupaka ukuya kwiindawo zokugcina iimpahla ukuya eluphahleni, baya kwenza ukuba izinto ezizimeleyo zihambe ngokubonelela ngeesiteji kunye neendawo zokutshaja kwakhona.

Ukusuka kwiMechanical to Biological Thinking. Njengoko uDanny Hillis echaza kwi Ijenali yoyilo kunye neNzululwazi , "Ukhanyiso lufile, phila ixesha elide." Ubudala bokuKhanyiselwa babonakaliswe ngokulandelelana kunye nokuxelwa kwangaphambili. Yayililizwe apho ubudlelwane be-causal babonakala, umthetho kaMorey wawungekhawulezisi isantya senguqu, kwaye iinkqubo zoqoqosho nezentlalo zazingekadibani. Kodwa ngoku, ngenxa yenkqubela phambili kwezobuchwephesha kunye nobunzululwazi kunye nokwanda kwehlabathi, umhlaba uqulethwe ziinkqubo ezinkulu nezincinci ezintsonkothileyo, ezixineneyo. Ngelixa besikade sikwazi ukusebenzisa ibali lokulandelelana kunye noomatshini ukucacisa umhlaba, ngoku sidinga ingxelo ephefumlelweyo yinkqubo yendalo kunye nezinye iinkqubo zendalo. Ukucinga kwebhayoloji akuhambelani. Endaweni yokuba abhale njengoMartin Reeves kunye nabanye. Ijolise kulingo kunokulawula inkqubo yokuvelisa isiphumo esithile.

Ukusuka kuZenzekelayo ukuya kwiNgezelelweyo. Uninzi lophando lwenkampani kunye nomgaqo-nkqubo ngokubhekisele kubukrelekrele bokuzenzela kunye "nekamva lomsebenzi" ligxile kukuzenzekelayo-ukutshintshwa kwabasebenzi kunye nokuqonda ngoomatshini. Izifundo ezininzi zinika ingxelo yokwahluka kwembali efanayo: Malunga nesiqingatha sayo yonke imisebenzi kuqoqosho oluphambili inokuthi izenzekele ngo-2050, ukuba akunjalo ngaphambili.

Le dichotomy yomntu ehambelana nokuchaneka komatshini inika inani lamabala angaboniyo kwaye angayikhathaleli imilinganiselo ebalulekileyo, enjengokusasazeka kweenkqubo ezintsonkothileyo kunye neziphumo zenethiwekhi ezibangelwa kukuzibophelela kwabo. Eyona nto ibaluleke kakhulu, litsiba elona thuba lithembisayo kushishino nakulo lonke icandelo loluntu: ujongano lomatshini womntu.

Ingxelo yokwandiswa, endaweni yokuzenzekelayo, imema iinkokheli zeshishini, abenzi bomgaqo-nkqubo, abaphandi, kunye nabasebenzi ukuba banike ingqwalaselo enkulu kule ndawo iphakathi.Iinkampani kunye noluntu kufuneka zenze ingxelo egxile kubuchule be-AI ukutshintsha isalathiso semisebenzi eliqela, rhoqo ngokweeodolo ezininzi zobukhulu. Umzekelo olungileyo kukuzenzela igama. Amanqaku aphakamisa i-AI kunye nedatha yokuthengisa anokuhamba ukusuka kumashumi okanye kumakhulu ukuya kumakhulu amawaka amacandelo abathengi kwaye abone ukwanda kwengeniso nge-6 ukuya kwi-10 leepesenti, kabini ukuya kathathu ngokukhawuleza kunaleyo ingasebenzisi obu buchule.

IAmazon ngumzekelo olungileyo we-AI njengomthombo wokwandiswa endaweni yokwenza nje ngokuzenzekelayo. Inkampani, engomnye wabasebenzisi abakhulu be-AI kunye neerobhothi (kumaziko ayo okufezekisa, inani leerobhothi lakhula ukusuka kwi-1,400 ngo-2014 ukuya kuma-45,000 ngo-2016), ngaphezulu kokuphindeka kabini kwabasebenzi kule minyaka mithathu idlulileyo kwaye kulindeleke ukuba kuqashwe enye i-100,000 Abasebenzi kunyaka ozayo (uninzi lwabo kumaziko okufezekisa).

Inqaku lelokuba sidinga ingxelo esikhuthaza ukuba sivelise ngakumbi ngezixhobo ezikhoyo (zabasebenzi) ngokusebenzisa i-AI kunye netekhnoloji, hayi eyokujonga umdlalo ophelileyo wokunyusa iindleko zabasebenzi naphina apho bakhoyo.

Ingxelo yokwandiswa ayikhawulelwanga kwiimveliso kunye neenkqubo; Ikwachaphazela ubuchwephesha kunye nolawulo. Kanye njengokuba kuthetha ukuba ligqirha kuza kwenziwa ngokutsha ngokufikelela kwizigidi zeerekhodi kunye nokufunda ngomatshini, oko kuthetha ukuba ngumphathi kunye nokuqhuba umbutho kuya kutshintsha kakhulu. Indlela yangoku yokwabela abaphantsi izigqibo iya kuchazwa ngokutsha kwaye ikhawuleziswe njengoko izigqibo zixhaswa yi-AI kunye nedatha, "yongeza" abenzi bezigqibo kunye nokuvumela izixhobo ezitsha zolawulo kunye nolwakhiwo olutsha lombutho.

ICartography njengoKhuphiswano lokuSebenza

Kuninzi esele kubhaliwe malunga nesixa esikhulu sedatha kunye nolwazi olukhoyo ngoku kubaphathi. Eyona nto ilahlekileyo kule ngxoxo kukuba umceli mngeni ophambili awuxhomekekanga ekubeni unolwazi oluninzi (iingqondo zethu zihlala zikhukhuliswa lulwazi oluninzi kunokuba sinako ukuluqhuba), kodwa kulwazi oluphuphumayo olwenzeka xa siswele isakhelo esifanelekileyo sokwenza umkhukula unentsingiselo.

Ukwenza imephu kubalulekile, kodwa ubukhulu becala akuhoywa, yinxalenye yokuziqhelanisa notshintsho olukhawulezileyo. Njengomzekelo waseNew York ukutshona kwelanga usibonisa, ukubalisa kunye nolwimi kunokusibambisa kwiimbono eziphelelwe lixesha zehlabathi. Kuya kufuneka sazi ngemephu zethu zengqondo, size sizikrobe ngokutsha ezifuna ukuphinda zenziwe, ukuba sifuna ukuba umhlaba uphinde ubenengqiqo kuthi. Kuyimfuneko yobunkokeli obudibeneyo, kunye noluntu.

Ngeepesenti ezingama-73 zee-CEO zibona utshintsho olukhawulezileyo kwezobuchwephesha njengenye yemicimbi ephambili (ukusuka kwiipesenti ezingama-64 kunyaka ophelileyo) ikwayimfuneko yokukhuphisana. Ukwenza imephu enolwazi kusinceda ukuba siziqhelanise notshintsho, kodwa kuyayiqhuba. Kwiminyaka engamakhulu amahlanu emva koKuzalwa kwakhona, sikhumbula uColumbus, uMichelangelo, uBrunelleschi, uDa Vinci nabanye, kuba iimephu zabo zazichaza indawo apho iminyaka yabo yayihlola khona. Uhambo lwanamhlanje lokufumanisa ngokufanayo kutyhila ilizwe elitsha kuthi. Iimephu ezintsha, amabali amatsha, aya kuvela kwaye achaze indlela esiyiqonda ngayo. Ukuba asizenzi, omnye umntu unjalo.