Iidemokhrasi zinokuthi zigqithise ubandlululo kwiRiphabhlikhi kunyulo

Ngaba abavoti beRiphabhlikhi banengqondo evaliweyo kwizigqibo zabo zonyulo njengoko iiDemokhrasi zicinga njalo?

Kwiphepha lakutshanje, ababhali (i-Mercier, i-Celniker, ne-Shariff, i-2020) bachaza izifundo ezithathu zokuvavanya uQikelelo lwamaDemokhrasi lokuba amaRiphabhlikhi angakulungela ukuvotela abagqatswa abavela kwiindidi ezahlukeneyo zabantu. Izifundo zivavanye ii-hypotheses ezinomdla malunga neenkolelo zeDemokhrasi malunga nokukhetha kweRiphabhlikhi kunye nokuba iinkolelo malunga nokukhetha okuthile zihambelana njani neenkolelo zeDemokhrasi malunga nokukhetha kwabagqatswa.

Olu ayisiyiyo uphononongo olupheleleyo lweziphumo zabo. Kwakukho iingcinga ezininzi ngokubhekisele kuqikelelo lweDemokhrasi lwabagqatswa beDemokhrasi abavela kwiindidi ezahlukeneyo endingazukuxoxa ngazo apha. Umzekelo, ababhali bavavanye ukukhethwa okuchongiweyo phakathi kweedemokhrasi zabantu abavela kwizigaba ezithile zedemokhrasi kunye nembono yeedemokhrasi ka-Elizabeth Warren, uBernie Sanders, kunye noPete Buttigieg. Kule posi, ndicacisa ezinye zezinto ezinomdla kakhulu kum.

Eli phepha lapapashwa kwi-Intanethi ngaphambi kokuba lifakwe kwijenali kwaye alikaqwalaselwa ngokusemthethweni. Njengamaxesha onke, ndiyabakhuthaza abafundi ukuba bafunde lonke inqaku labo ngokwabo kwaye bazenzele ezabo izimvo zedatha- kwaye baphonononge iziphumo endingaxubushi ngazo apha.

Idatha yoFundo 1 yaqokelelwa kwisampulu ye-Intanethi yabathathi-nxaxheba abangama-728 (i-76% emhlophe, i-13% emnyama, i-7% i-Hispanic, i-6% i-Asia yaseMpuma; i-56% eyindoda, i-44% yabasetyhini; iminyaka yobudala eyi-35.75). Abathathi-nxaxheba baceliwe malunga nokuzimisela kwabo ukuvota abagqatswa bezopolitiko bamaqela ahlukeneyo ngokwabantu kunye noqikelelo lwabo lokuba iiDemokhrasi, iiRiphabhlikhi, kunye nawo onke amaMelika angaphendula njani kwimibuzo efanayo (kwisikali se-0-100%). Kwakukho amaDemokhrasi angama-369, amaRiphabhliki angama-175, kunye no-167 abazimeleyo kwisampuli.

Njengesiseko esisisiseko sokuthelekisa uqikelelo kubathathi-nxaxheba, abaphandi basebenzise idatha evela kuphando lukazwelonke lweGallup olubonisa uqikelelo lokuzimisela ukuvota kudidi oluthile lwabantu. Idatha kazwelonke yeGallup ibibonisile ngaphambili ukuba amaRiphabhlikhi athi bazimisele kakhulu ukuvotela la maqela alandelayo: amaKatolika (97%), abaMnyama (94%), amaJuda (94%), amaSpanishi (92%), abavangeli (92%) , okanye umfazi (90%).

Ngokomndilili, iiDemokhrasi kwisampulu ziqikelele iindidi ezininzi. Oku kubandakanya umndilili weDemokhrasi oqikelela ukuba amaRiphabhlikhi angabonisa ukuzimisela ukuvota umgqatswa ongumKatolika (70%), uMnyama (40%), umJuda (45%), iSpanish (37%), umvangeli (76%), okanye umfazi (43%).

Idatha kazwelonke yeGallup ibibonisile ngaphambili ukuba amaRiphabhlikhi axelwe ukuba azimisele ukuvotela la maqela alandelayo: ubusoshiyali (iipesenti ezingama-19), amaSilamsi (ama-38%), okanye abakholelwa kuThixo (ama-42%). Iidemokhrasi zaphoswa luphawu kwindawo ezimbini kwezi zintathu, zinikwe umndilili ophakathi Uqikelelo lokuba amaRiphabhlikhi angabonisa ukuzimisela ukuvotela umgqatswa ongumSilamsi (21%) okanye ongakholelwa kubukho bukaThixo (29%).

Yiyo loo nto, iiDemokhrasi zivelise impendulo engeyiyo kumaRiphabhlikhi kumacandelo amaKatolika, abaNtsundu, amaJuda, amaSpanishi, amaVangeli, kunye nabasetyhini, kuvavanyo oluchanekileyo ngokukodwa lweRiphabhlikhi ngokuchasene ne-Hispanics. Leyo yingcamango enomdla engathandekiyo yamaRiphabhlikhi enikwe ukuba abaviwa baseSpain uMarco Rubio kunye noTed Cruz babengabaceli-mngeni abakhulu kwi-primary GOP ye-2016.

Iidemokhrasi zikwanyanzelise ukwaliwa kweRiphabhlikhi yomgqatswa ongumSilamsi okanye ongakholelwa kubukho bukaThixo. Ukongeza, iiDemokhrasi zigqithisile ukuba zingaphi iRiphabhlikhi ezinokuthi zivume ukuvotela umgqatswa ongaphezulu kweminyaka engama-70 ubudala okanye usoshiyali. Ngenxa yokuba abathathu abakhuphisana kakhulu kwi-Democrat kunye ne-Republican yokutyunjwa baneminyaka engama-70 ubudala (uBiden, uSanders, uTrump), njengobusoshiyali, uSanders angaba nelahleko yokuphulukana nayo ngokhetho lukazwelonke. Iinkcukacha ezongezelelweyo kwiSifundo 1 zibonise ukuba iiRiphabhlikhi zazichaneke ngakumbi ekuchazeni ukuzimisela kukaDemokhrasi ukuvota abagqatswa kunokuba uqikelelo lweDemokhrasi lwalungoweqela labo. Oku kungabangelwa kukuba abantu baseRiphabhlikhi banamathele ngakumbi kulwahlulo lwangoku kwiDemocratic Party kunokuba iiDemokhrasi zisenza uqikelelo lwabo.

Idatha yoFundo 2 yaqokelelwa ngoJanuwari 2020 kwisampuli ekwi-intanethi yabathathi-nxaxheba abangama-597. Ivavanye kuphela abaDemokhrasi kwaye yongeza imibuzo malunga nokuba unxibelelana kangakanani nomntu othabatha inxaxheba kwiRiphabhlikhi. Kum, okona kufunyanwa kunomdla kwiSifundo 2 yayikukuba ukunxibelelana okuthe rhoqo kwabathathi-nxaxheba beDemokhrasi kwiRiphabhlikhi, kokuchanekileyo ngokuqikelelweyo koqikelelo lwamaRiphabhlikhi ukuvotela umgqatswa wenani elithile labantu. Esi siphumo sibonakala sigxininisa isidingo sokuphuma kumagumbi e-echo kwaye sithethe omnye nomnye.

Idatha yoFundo 3 yaqokelelwa ngoFebruwari 2020 kwisampulu ekwi-intanethi yabathathi-nxaxheba abangama-930. Kwakunjalo nesifundo 2, ngaphandle kokuba sasinokuqhutywa ngobuqhetseba: Abathathi-nxaxheba banikwa ulwazi ngenqanaba lesiseko kwipesenti yokwenyani yabantu baseMelika abazimiseleyo ukuvotela umgqatswa kwiqela elithile labantu okanye babenganikwanga olo lwazi. Ukubonelelwa ngedatha yesiseko sedatha kukhokelele kumaDemokhrasi aqikelela ukukhethwa okuphezulu komgqatswa ongakholelwa kubukho bukaThixo, oMnyama, obhinqileyo, isitabane, iSpanish, umJuda, okanye umSilamsi, kunye nokukhetha okuphantsi komgqatswa ongumKatolika, wevangeli, ongumKristu, wobusoshiyali, okanye ngaphezulu kweminyaka engama-70 ubudala.

Izigqibo

Ababhali bophando oluhlaziyiweyo baqhube izifundo ezintathu ezibonisa indlela abaDemokhrasi ababona ngayo amaRiphabhlikhi kwaye banikezela ukuqonda malunga nokuba kukhetho kangakanani na, izimo zengqondo kumaqela, kunye nokuziphatha okujongwa ngabanye kumaqela kunokuba nefuthe kwinkxaso yomntu kumgqatswa othile. Kufanelekile ukuba iingcali zezopolitiko zisebenzise le sayensi yengqondo ukumisela iindlela zazo. Okona kubaluleke kakhulu, inika abaphandi abasisiseko kwisayensi yezengqondo ukuqonda ukuba izimo zengqondo zichaphazela njani imeko yezopolitiko yangoku.